Theresa May and the Magic Money Tree

Picture the scene... A distraught worker almost begging to be given a living wage on public television, almost on the verge of tears only to be told that they can't have it because there isn't any money available. A tough scene to imagine but we had to actually watch that during the... Well, it wasn't really a debate more of a Q&A session because Mrs May didn't think that the public wanted to see her debating despite hundreds of thousands of people calling for her to do so. It was uncomfortable to watch and Mrs May's response was regrettable to say the least but if there's no money then there's no money. Fast forward almost a month and lo and behold there's a spare £1 billion pounds just begging to be spent on 10 votes because Mrs May and her government (which we still technically don't have because the Queen's Speech is yet to be approved) is so strong and stable that they need those votes to make anything happen. They have also stood by absolutely none of their manifesto because it was unpopular and the DUP opposed making a deal on the basis of it. Surely, Mrs May, that should tell you that you have no mandate? Again. Her government had no mandate before the election because she won party leadership by default and she has no mandate now because she asked for a majority specifically and was given a hung parliament instead. And yet she still won't take the hint! Her cabinet promised £350 million a week to the NHS after the referendum on the EU and failed to deliver that and even going so far as to deny it was ever said (we all saw the bus). Even if you're not outraged by the blatant lies that have been fed to us and the constant back tracks and u-turns of the "government" you can't fail to be annoyed that Mrs May is so desperate to cling to power that she would hand £1 billion over to a party of 10 MPs. She herself said that there was no money so where is this coming from? Will more of the NHS assets be sold off? The Naylor Report recommendations for the sale of NHS land and property were going to keep the treasury breaking even (apparently) so now Mrs May has taken a sledgehammer to the budget and left an absolutely massive hole that has to be filled somehow. Because the Conservatives have slowly but surely been selling off publicly owned assets there isn't much left to sell so unless they're planning to fully privatise the NHS and axe social housing (God/Gods/Goddess/Goddesses help us all if that's the plan!) they can't do that, they pledged to cut corporation tax again by a significant amount so that will leave less in the treasury, an increase in personal tax allowances will drain the funds too... Exactly where is the money coming from to fund all of this? All this for 10 votes. And this isn't £1 billion and that's all, oh no, this is £1 billion to be mostly paid over the next two years and then the deal will be reviewed meaning that the DUP could go back and ask for more. And to be completely honest as much as I disagree with the DUP and their political stance I don't blame them for what they've done. They had a list of demands and instead of a negotiation they steamrollered the Conservatives. This, by the way, being the team of expert negotiators who are supposed to be delivering the best deal for Brexit. They couldn't even handle a deal with 10 MPs and they expect us to believe they can handle the bloc of 27?! They are some of the best negotiators in the world and we're sending a team that doesn't know what it's own stance is. Total and clear break, no, Swiss arrangement, no, special arrangement, no, full access to the single market, no, pull out of the single market. The latest reports from Downing Street suggest that they are now planning to accept each of the four pillars of the EU and if that's the case (and I sincerely hope that it is) then we have to ask why we're even leaving? But I digress.  My point is that we can't afford to pay nurses, doctors, police, firemen etc. a decent wage which reflects the high pressure environment that they work in to keep us safe and healthy but we can find a huge sum of money to keep Theresa May in office and protect herself from being booted out. Perhaps, Mrs May, if you find yourself facing that many problems with staying in office you should ask yourself whether you're staying in office for the public (who largely want you out) or for yourself. You are not the CEO of a corporation you are the Prime Mimister of the country and you cannot stay in office just because you want to. The fact that you've had to take such drastic steps to remain in office should tell you that you don't deserve to be there. You are threatening the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, you are isolating and depriving Scotland and Wales and you are punishing the very people who protect you and your MPs by refusing to lift the Public Sector pay cap, something you could have done easily had you found that £1 billion before the election. Your actions are those of desperation and not made in the interests of the country, they are self serving in the most basic way. You have just spent more on 10 votes than the Labour Party were proposing to spend on reprivatising everything your party has sold off. Here's the issue though; you may have secure do those 10 votes on a few issues but your own party is weak and divided. How confident are you that you can't control your entire party when it counts? How often will you have to rely on the three line whip to make people fall into line? Here's the true test of your leadership and a challenge I know you wouldn't dare to accept; give your MPs a free vote on the Queen's Speech tomorrow. If you truly believe that you are the leader you claim to be, and in your utter lack of solid policies then you don't need to order MPs to vote in a particular way. Government by the three line whip is tantamount to a dictatorship and if that is what you need to resort to in order to remain in power then you do not deserve to be there. If you are truly going to listen to the will of the people as you claim to do (but have shown no evidence of doing so in your entire tenure within the government) then go shake the magic money tree that now seems to exist and give our public services what they need instead of wasting time and money on deals that will die faster than chewing on a cyanide pill. If you really want to stay in power you need to give us (the public) what we're crying out for; an end to austerity and investment in our hard working and hugely deservingly public sector workers.

Theresa May and the DUP

I originally started this blog to keep up with the General Election of last Thursday. Unfortunately a lack of time and the ridiculous pace of the campaign meant that keeping up was next to impossible,

So now to the topic at hand; the DUP. Theresa May has announced that she will be negotiating a deal with this party in order to prop up her lack of a majority in parliament. There are several thousand things wrong with this set-up; not least of which is that there is a massive potential to breach the Good Friday Agreement (which the DUP are categorically opposed to, by the way). There is also the massive problem that the UK Government is currently acting as an independent party between the DUP and Sinn Fein as they negotiate over their rapidly collapsing power-sharing agreement. How can the Government remain neutral when they are relying on one of these parties for support? I'm all for compartmentalising but that is an impossible situation to negotiate. To call it a mine field isn't quite severe enough! There is no road here that won't explode; it may not be immediate but it will happen because the political situation in Northern Ireland is on a knife edge at the best of times,

To compound matters the political views of the DUP are absolutely stuck in the Victorian Era; Creationism should be taught as science, homophobia, they're against women's rights and they are known to have links to various active paramilitary organisations. Just today a DUP councillor posted an image where a flag for the Ulster Volunteer Force was photoshopped onto Downing Street as a celebration of the current talks. Because of the DUP being gay is merely tolerated in Northern Ireland and marriage is illegal. A woman having an abortion can face life in prison. Life! A life sentence. Let that sink in for a second. Women have the absolute right to choose what happens with and within their own bodies and these rights are enshrined in law but the DUP clearly believe themselves above that because they employ draconian methods to block any and all legislation on the matter. Laws on these subjects are not extended to NI because of this which means that while people in this country are drinking themselves into a stupor for "Pride" there are people less than a few hundred miles away still being denied their rights because of a pseudo-religious political party. This isn't some random country around the other side of the globe, these people are part of this country. These are the people that present Theresa May's only hope of clinging onto the position she has so desperately worked towards.

I don't have a problem with a career politician, I don't. If someone wants to aim for the Premiership (whether man, woman or any of the other genders that pop up every other week) then it shouldn't be held against them. What I disagree with is putting self interest above the country. This isn't a company where you can just wait out a dip in share price, or sell up and start again with a different company; this is the government of the country.The needs of the many should outweigh the desires of the few but all we've had from Theresa May is self preservation. Her entire campaign was about her, her leadership and her ability to negotiate a good Brexit deal on the back of her being a "bloody difficult woman". Having had extensive training in negotiation and conflict resolution the worst thing you can have in a discussion is someone being "difficult" because their default position is "no" and they're already predisposed against compromise. Although from what we've seen so far I don't think she's difficult at all she just seems to lack the necessary fortitude to actually negotiate so all she has in her repertoire is "no". I guess in the Conservative party that passes for negotiation now. So why am I mentioning this? Well because of the epic mess that she's making of things right now; she lost her majority, she has lost the respect of the public, she's divided the Conservative party and in a last ditch attempt to hold onto her position she is risking the resurrection of the events of the early 90s by aligning with the DUP. This is the exact opposite of the image she tried to present in the campaign of being "strong and stable". I don't particularly like what David Cameron did as Prime Minister and I disagree with the austerity of the Conservative administration from 2010 onwards but I will say this; when David Cameron called the Referendum for the EU and lost, he resigned. He accepted that, because of his position as a Remain campaigner, he didn't have the authority or the mandate to lead negotiations because he didn't want them in the first place. This was the first mistake Theresa May has made in a long line of mistakes and also her latest; she is in the exact same position whereby she specifically requested and campaigned for an increased majority in the House of Commons and she didn't get it. In fact she lost seats and Labour gained them in a very surprising but not unwelcome resurgence. Her mandate is shot and she should follow leaders before her and resign. As much as I love politics I don't want another election so soon, I have no problem admitting this but at the same time if it is the only way to clean up the mess that we're in then bring it on.

It is... I guess the word would be amusing that Theresa May's campaign accused Labour and the other parties of forming a "coalition of chaos" and that the Labour manifesto would take the country back to the 1970's and yet she is currently trying to negotiate a deal with a party whose idea of "current" is the second edition of the King James Bible. Her current political situation is also an echo of 1974 in which Ted Heath attempted to form a minority government with a Confidence agreement with... The Northern Irish Unionists. Scary how things are repeating themselves, isn't it? The difference here is that the 1974 election was called because of entering the EU while this one was called because of leaving it. Things have gone full circle in 60 odd years. Ted Heath also didn't resign when he probably should have and he then called another election to try to increase his majority. Now Theresa May must have noticed the parallel here because she has categorically denied there will be another election. Unfortunately she's done so many u-turns lately she's practically done a doughnut on the tarmac of Downing Street so while she says there won't be another election she also said that 12 weeks ago. Lo and behold; we've just had the snap election she said there wasn't going to be so who knows what will happen in the next few weeks?

Now why have we just had an election history lesson? Because a) I tend to go off on tangents and b) to show that this situation is not unique. Theresa May should not be Prime Minster. It's that simple. Now there will be some feminists out there who think that it's a criticism of her as a woman Prime Minster but I don't believe in looking at things according to gender lines; if she had been a fantastic Prime Minister and was as strong and stable as she made out then I'd be all for her staying but she hasn't. What this country is about to do is unprecedented and monumental; it will affect this country for decades to come and we need the best team (not a single person) possible to lead the way and it is not Theresa May and it is certainly not the 10 representatives of a party with zero interest in the needs of the UK as a whole. One of their demands will be increased spending in Northern Ireland which I'm not opposed to but that money will have to come from somewhere and there's only so far that means tested winter fuel payments will go. There will probably be further cuts to the NHS or the Police or the Fire services to fund it. Theresa May also doesn't approve of transparency in her governing style so it's unlikely that she will announce the terms of the deal anyway so we'll have to wait for them to leak (anyone else being reminded of the Trump administration?).

This deal is having a knock on effect on the rest of the Parliamentary process; because talks with the DUP are ongoing the Queen's Speech has been delayed (with no timetable for it to happen) which hasn't happened very often if at all in recent history. In fact the only times I've been able to find where there was a delay in the State Opening of Parliament was 1559 and 1588 under Queen Elizabeth I. I imagine there have been other times but I haven't found them. This, to me, shows the extent of Theresa May's negotiation skills in that she knew this was coming and still hasn't been able to secure a deal with the DUP in order to write the Queen's Speech. Now there have been reports that this is due to the type of paper and the drying time of the ink and while I first thought this was a joke I have since done my research and it is in fact a real issue. My issue with this issue is that the ink takes three days to dry and there is a week until the State Opening of Parliament so that's plenty of time. Theresa May is stalling for time and as a result she is jeopardising her opportunity to form a government and is in fact showing that she already doesn't have control over the situation. She is failing to negotiate with 10 people representing one State; how is she going to handle representatives of the bloc of 27 countries in the EU? She is running out of time fast. Parliamentary guidelines state that if she is unable to form a government then there will be a vote of no confidence. She can't form a government without the Queen's Speech and she's delayed it, In my eyes she's already proven herself unable. Following this the Opposition is given 14 days to form a minority government (Labour have already announced that they are ready to go on this front and even have a Queen's Speech prepared) and if they are unable then a General Election is triggered. Theresa May is clutching at straws here and it's plain for everyone to see. One of her favourite catch phrases of the Election was that "no deal is better than a bad one" so maybe Theresa May should take her own advice here and give up on working with the DUP.

Me and my views

To anyone reading I first of all say "welcome!". I just wanted to start this as a memo of my thoughts on the political world as it currently stands because everyone else gets to express their opinions so why not me as well? To be completely clear here these are my own personal views; they may line up with yours and they may not and I welcome and actively encourage discussion and debate but always respectfully. We all have our own opinions and we are allowed these.

Before my first real post, a little about me to get an idea of why I lean the way I do politically.

I am (at the time of writing) a 29 year old gay white male living in a major city in the U.K. I was raised on a council estate in what could generously be called a less affluent area, attended state schools, university with student loans, maintenance grants and a bursary and went on to post graduate study. I trained to be a barrister but didn't enjoy it so now I work in financial services. Between training and working I was unemployed for two years. (and I say all of this so that my biases or lack thereof are made clear). In terms of the political spectrum I would say I fall slightly to the left of centre-left so I see myself as falling somewhere between socialism and capitalism. I have always had a deep interest in politics and will always continue to have such an interest as I believe politics is of vital importance to everyone and not something to be ignored. It affects literally everything we do in our day to day lives. I identify as a "liberal" but I vote based on policy rather than personality (although that does play a part) and as such I'd say it is unlikely that I'd ever vote Conservative (they're typically too right wing and conservative with a small c for me) if they released a manifesto I agreed with I wouldn't rule out voting for them. As it is I tend to vote Green/Labour/Liberal Democrats though I have voted for an independent candidate in a local election a few years back.

So this is where I stand politically. Any posts in this blog are personal views only and not linked to any political party or other individual so if I support any party above another it is based on research alone.